That’s the day an asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4 may strike our planet. Cosmic bookmakers don’t make an impact terribly likely. According to NASA, the odds of a collision are just 2.3%. But that nearly doubles the 1.

The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to a NASA update on Feb. 7. This probability of impact has increased since Jan. 29 when NASA observed that the asteroid had a little over 1% chance of impacting Earth.

The $10 billion orbiting observatory will give astronomers a better sense of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4's size and position.